Brandon Jackson

There is no perfect science when it comes to projecting college quarterbacks into the NFL, but all the data points matter. Completion percentage, touchdown percentage, interception rate, and many many more. Even the “eye test” matters a significant amount. But there is one data point that I’ll be discussing today that these quarterbacks need just to be able to get into the club (with exceptions).

That data point is games started at the Power 5 (now Power 4, RIP PAC-12) level. Basically, the amount of games you have started against the best competition in college football.

I wanted to know what the numbers were to the starting quarterbacks in the NFL, vs. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, and Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, the latter two who are returning to school in 2026.

Again, this is not an exact science, but it is almost a prerequisite to be a starting quarterback in the NFL except for some very specific circumstances.

I have listed the 32 quarterbacks in the NFL who either started the most games for their team, or who will be their QB moving forward.

Burrow: 28 (All-Pro)	Jackson: 34 (All-Pro)	Rodgers: 20 (All-Pro)	Sanders: 24
Williams: 33	Goff: 37 (All-Pro)	McCarthy: 28	Love: 0
Lawrence: 36	Ward: 38	Stroud: 25	D. Jones: 36
Mahomes: 29 (All-Pro)	Herbert: 42	G. Smith: 39	Nix: 61
Purdy: 46 (All-Pro)	Stafford: 34 (All-Pro)	Darnold: 24	Murray: 17
Shough: 32	Mayfield: 46	Young: 27	Penix: 45
Maye: 26 (All-Pro)	Tagovailola: 24	Fields: 22	Allen: 0 (All-Pro)
Prescott: 33 (All-Pro)	Daniels: 55	Hurts: 42 (All-Pro)	Dart: 41

There are 4 notable exceptions on the list, that I will characterize as very specific circumstances.

Aaron Rodgers had only 20 Power 5 starts, he began his career at a junior college, and was drafted in a different era than the one that we are in now. He also sat behind Brett Favre for 3 years before getting his starting quarterback opportunity.

Kyler Murray had only 17 Power 5 starts, but during his one full year of starting he won the Heisman trophy. And was good enough to be selected as the #1 overall pick.

Jordan Love and Josh Allen had zero starts for Power 5 programs, as they both played their college careers in the Mountain West conference. Both quarterbacks are obviously uniquely gifted athletes who’s ability enabled them to be drafted in the first round. Love started 32 games in the MWC and Josh Allen started 26.

The rest of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL all had at least 2 full years of starting experience at the P5 level.

The general consensus among scouts in the NFL seems to be that the cutoff is at about 25 P5 starts. Looking at the numbers, it feels like that is probably correct, even though more experience doesn’t necessarily guarantee more success.

Essentially, this is like applying for a job and you need a bachelor’s degree in order to even be considered. Unless you’re Kyler Murray, and you earned an internship through an amazing project you did while in undergrad. Or you’re Josh Allen and you interviewed so well that you only have an associate’s degree, but they hired you anyway.

That shows up in the number of players who have been designated an All-Pro, as well. You have the outliers Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen, and then 9 other guys who had started at least 26 P5 games in college.

This evidence all points to the fact that on some level, that college starts number matters. And at the very least, NFL scouts and evaluators think it matters. In recent years, the quarterbacks that have been drafted in the first round: Caleb Williams (33), Jayden Daniels (55), Drake Maye (26), Michael Penix (45), Bo Nix (61), JJ McCarthy (28), and Cam Ward (38) all meet the threshold, and most significantly are above it.

Now that brings us to the real subjects of this topic, the 4 draft eligible quarterbacks that I mentioned earlier.

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has had 35 starts at the Power 5 level. As far as that is concerned, he’s good to go. Any qualms you have with him as a prospect are not related to experience. Or at least, they shouldn’t be.

Oregon QB Dante Moore has only had 20 starts at the Power 5 level. He started 5 games as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, and started all 15 games for the Oregon Ducks in the 2025-26 season. He is a very good quarterback prospect, but falls just short of that threshold of 25 starts as it stands right now. I believe this played a big part in his decision to go back to Oregon for another year. Not because of the starts number itself, but that more development was needed, and it could’ve ended poorly if he was asked to lead an NFL team right out of the gate.

I commend him for his decision and to have that sort of self awareness about his development, because he likely turned down $50 million guaranteed as a top 3 pick. That couldn’t have been easy, but he is making the choice more for the second NFL contract more than the first one.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is well short of that 25 start mark, as he only has 15 under his belt. He started 15 games this past season at Alabama as a 4th-year junior and has not started a game before then. He was third string behind Bryce Young in 2022, and backup to Jalen Milroe the last two years.

When you watch the film on Simpson, you can see why he made the decision to declare for the draft. He has made some outstanding throws against high-level competition in the SEC. The problem is that he also had a prolonged period of inaccuracy and injury. It’s a positive sign for his toughness that he played through injury, the injuries that he suffered definitely hampered his play. We don’t know on record what he was playing through, but it’s been rumored on social media that he played through a back injury for a good portion of the season.

Simpson is not the type of prospect that has athletic gifts so great that you can overlook the mediocre play on his resume. He’s a good athlete, not a great one. He has a good arm, not a great one. All that being said, he’s still going to be a first round pick. That’s why he’s in the draft. And once again I’ll say that this isn’t a perfect science, but the numbers definitely say that the odds are against him succeeding.

Based on his skillset, experience, and likely draft slot, his best case scenario on paper is fellow Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. Mac Jones had 17 starts at Alabama, and had a far greater statistical season that Ty Simpson just had. I will say, I believe Simpson is a better prospect than Mac Jones, I am just presenting the numbers for you to draw your own conclusions.

Last but not least, we have Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Chambliss started 13 games this season for Ole Miss, in his only season at the Power 5 level. There is a possibility a lawsuit against the NCAA may allow him to play another season in college, but that remains to be seen. (Note: he won the lawsuit, but there is still uncertainty of him actually playing until he steps on the field for Ole Miss in the fall.)

13 games is far too small of a sample size to be comfortable drafting Chambliss on the first two days of the NFL draft. And I think Chambliss knows that, which is exactly why he’s filing suit against the NCAA. He would make a great amount of money going back to college through NIL, and he could potentially improve his draft stock immensely.

As it stands right now, he was just an electric college quarterback, that a team would have to take a flier on, and see what happens in camp. Similar to a situation like Dillon Gabriel was in with the Browns in 2025.

Chambliss is very gifted and did as much with his opportunity as he possibly could have. Hopefully, winning his lawsuit against the NCAA enables him to play and gain valuable experience at the college level before moving on to the NFL.

Other notable draft-eligible quarterbacks in this class are:

• Drew Allar: 35
• Carson Beck: 43
• Cade Klubnik: 40
• Garrett Nussmeier: 23
• Diego Pavia: 26

I don’t believe any of these 5 players will be drafted highly or will have high expectations placed upon them. They had varying degrees of success in college, but all of them are flawed NFL prospects.

So, who are the cautionary tales? Who are the quarterbacks that were drafted with high expectations that didn’t pan out?

• Kenny Pickett: 49
• Will Levis: 26
• Mac Jones: 17
• Anthony Richardson; 13
• Zach Wilson: 0
• Trey Lance: 0
• Malik Willis: 0

Kenny Pickett was a longtime starter at the University of Pittsburgh, he had the requisite experience but not the talent to match.

Will Levis started 26 games and never really looked the part of an NFL starting quarterback.

We discussed Mac Jones earlier in regards to Ty Simpson.

For all his God given gifts, it is clear that Anthony Richardson needed more experience before playing NFL football and it’s likely he gets traded away from the team that drafted him.

Zach Wilson was let go from his original team, and Trey Lance has been on multiple teams.

Malik Willis was not drafted nearly as high as the others on this list, but maybe has fared the best, as he will likely sign a generous contract in free agency this spring after starting 6 games in the last 4 years across 2 teams.

Like I stated at the beginning, experience is not the be-all end-all when scouting quarterbacks, merely just a piece of the puzzle. But it is gaining a larger market share of that puzzle every year, especially with more guys doing everything they can to stay in college longer at the quarterback position.

There’s a lot that goes into how a quarterback develops at the NFL level, the team you get drafted to, the quality of players around you, how good the coaching staff is. I’m not claiming this to be foolproof, but it is an interesting starting point.