After some excruciating decsions were made last week, I came out on top last week. 4/4 with picks, and if Mike Dewine would let us gamble in Ohio, I would’ve made a lot of money last weekend.
But this is a new week and new matchups. Four teams that could all reasonably win for one reason or another. The Divisonal round games were as close as you could possibly get, all four games were decided with walkoff plays. With the last game being the best, topped off with probably the best 4th quarter/overtime we’ve ever seen.
I saw all the previous games being close, but this week I’m not so sure. You could definitely see the Chiefs and the Rams win in decisive fashion, even if it’s not likely.
Those two teams are the favorites, but if things break right, we could absolutely see two upsets happen on Sunday.
Bengals @ Chiefs
The Bengals beat the Chiefs about a month ago. The Chiefs needed to win that game in order to win the #1 in the AFC, and they couldn’t get it done. They let Joe Burrow and Ja’marr Chase carve them up all afternoon.
And there’s no real evidence that could make someone believe that won’t be the case again on Sunday. Joe Burrow has arrived, and he’s here to stay. Even the best defenses can’t hang with Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. It’s not really possible. And the Chiefs let Gabriel Davis score 4 touchdowns last week.
(If you play fantasy football, he was on your radar already, but that’s besides the point.)
The Chiefs gave up 36 points last Sunday. They gave up 34 to this Cincinnati team in week 17. Tyrann Mathieu is questionable for the game. I think the Bengals get to at least 30 points on Sunday.
The problem is, I think the Chiefs get to 42 again like they have the past two weeks.
Patrick Mahomes has been playing great football, and claimed his spot as the best quarterback in the NFL. Even after all of Mahomes’ gaudy stats, I still believed Aaron Rodgers was the best in the league. That crown is in Kansas City now for sure.
Mahomes has been locked in, and he has been unstoppable in the playoffs. This year, and for most of the past three years as well. I don’t see that changing against this Bengals team.
The Bengals do have a chance because of Joe Burrow, but not enough of one for me to pick them to win.
WINNER: CHIEFS
49ers @ Rams
This game is much harder to pick. Shanahan is probably a better coach, the 49ers may have a better overall team, but the Rams have the better quarterback in a landslide.
However, that was the case last week against Green Bay. The key players that San Francisco needs to play are all expected to be active. Trent Williams is hurt, but will most likely suit up, and that’s huge.
Deebo Samuel put his body on the line against the Packers, and it got them the win. He will need to do something similar in order to get another win this Sunday.
The Rams looked like they were cruising to a victory against the Bucs, but they almost had an all-time meltdown against Tom Brady. Thanks to the clutch play from Matthew Stafford, they won.
But we knew as soon as they got the lead, Sean McVay would get super conservative, and that’s how it played out. For all of McVay’s genius, he plays way too conservative at times, and also has been out coached routinely by Kyle Shanahan.
In a fantastic piece written for The Ringer, it was detailed how Kyle Shanahan has used his personnel to fine-tune his running game around the unique skillset of his players. And he’s consistently done it better than McVay.
Shanahan has done a masterful job of coaching around Jimmy Garoppolo’s weaknesses, and if he can do it one more time, he will lead this franchise back to the super bowl.
But that’s the $64,000 question. Can Shanahan do it again? Can he continue this impossible run of being a road underdog and pulling out the victory despite his below average quarterback?
Yes.
On the backs on Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner, Kyle Juszczyk, and Nick Bosa.
Brandon Jackson 
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