Brandon Jackson

Now that the lottery is set, we can finally start to make sense of where this current crop of NBA draft prospects might spend their next couple of years.

It seems like the consensus top prospect is DeAndre Ayton from Arizona. But I don’t believe that he will necessarily be selected first overall. I know in the NBA draft, teams take more of a “best player available” approach, but with this current group of prsopects, I do not believe that will be the case. Fit is important for these players.

#1 Phoenix Suns: G/F, Luka Doncic

I know Ayton is probably the best overall prospect, and he went to school in Arizona. They also only have one more year of Tyson Chandler at center. But if you look at how the Suns’ roster is currently constructed, they could not use Ayton to the best of his ability.

20%, 29.5%, 22.2%, and 0%.

Those are the 3-point field goal percentages of Elfrid Payton (19 games with the Suns), Marquese Chriss, TJ Warren, and Tyson Chandler, the 4 people starting around devin Booker. This team can’t shoot. At all. If you bring Ayton onto this roster, he can be double teamed by his own man, and whoever else is on the court not guarding Booker. Their lineup has disastrous spacing.

This is where Doncic comes in. I understand he only shot 31% from 3 this past season, and that I used that stat to make this the reason the Suns will pick Doncic. But his ability to operate within and manipulate poor spacing is why he is a better fit for Phoenix. His presence will open up things for Booker, and Booker can open up things for Doncic.

With the game becoming more position-less with each passing day, having both Booker and Doncic as your starting backcourt could work.

#2 Sacramento Kings: C, DeAndre Ayton

Unfortunately, Sacramento is one of the NBA cities where lottery prospects go to die. And Ayton will absolutely be the pick here if he’s still on the board. He would almost instantly become the top scoring option on the Kings as soon as he walks in the door.

I do like the potential of the Ayton/De’Aaron Fox pick-and-roll. And that’s where the things I like end.

Ayton is a great prospect, so he has to go no lower than #2 overall, but Sacramento has a horrible record with draft picks. Their last lottery pick that was good, was DeMarcus Cousins in 2010. But he had no team success while in Sacramento, so it did not really matter.

The last Kings lottery pick that had success with the team was Jason Williams back in 1998, who was picked two years after Peja Stojakovic.

Ayton has great physical tools. He can run, rebound, block shots, and knock down open shots. He needs work on his on-ball defense and his team defense. He will be out of position too much for an athlete of his caliber.

Whether he can flourish with the Kings though, is the most prevalent question.

#3 Atlanta Hawks: C, Mo Bamba

Bamba is an athletic marvel. He’s 6’11” with a 7’9″ wingspan. He is a can’t-miss prospect on defense, and I think with no wing prospects of value at this spot, a can’t miss version of anything is a good choice. Bamba at worst will be an athletic shot blocker who can rebound both ends of the floor.

He can cover for the defensive weaknesses of John Collins, and I think those to two could make something work together, depending on the rest of the roster.

Bamba at 3 is a value pick.

#4 Memphis Grizzlies: F, Marvin Bagley III

Bagley is a perfect fit for Memphis at 4. He plays hard, rebounds well, and has the ability to score in the low post.

Bagley is has a power forward body type and a power forward game. He can do that playing next to Marc Gasol. His best fit is playing with a talented point guard who could get the ball to him in the right spots. He could do that playing with Mike Conley.

Memphis has to decide if they want to rebuild or try and make another playoff push. Whichever way they want to go, Bagley should be the pick.

#5 Dallas Mavericks: C/F, Jaren Jackson Jr.

Dallas will be picking in the lottery again next year. They are in full rebuild mode, even though Dirk Nowitzki keeps signing extensions. Dennis Smith Jr. is a good start to the rebuild. They need to pick the best player available as long as possible for them. Jackson is the best player left on the board.

Jackson could go higher, but the top 4 teams may shy away from him, as he doesn’t have the top-end athleticism that the other big-man prospects in this class do.

Despite his athleticism, he is a tremendous shot blocker. He shot almost 40% from 3 at Michigan St. on about 100 attempts. He can finish with contact at the rim. He’d be great to pair with the super-athletic Dennis Smith, and run that pick-and-pop action.

#6 Orlando Magic: PG, Collin Sexton

The Magic need everything. Plain and simple. They have Aaron Gordon, but it remains to be seen if they will sign him to a long term extension. For Gordon’s whole career, he hasn’t been able to find stable footing, and I believe the Magic are at fault for that.

I also believe that trading Victor Oladipo might haunt them. Sexton is no Oladipo, but they might try and rectify their mistake by being aggressive and getting Sexton at this spot.

Sexton is a force. I did not watch many Alabama games this past season, but I think it is safe to say that Sexton would feel right at home playing for the Magic. In the sense that he would basically be the only person on the floor to be able to get his own shot.

He’s a good defender because he has the talent and skillset for it, but also just because he really wants to be. And that distinction does matter.

Sexton isn’t a “pure” point guard, but if the Magic find a bigger guard with playmaking ability to pair him with, it wont matter.

#7 Chicago Bulls: G/F, Mikal Bridges

Every single team in the NBA could find a roster spot for Mikal Bridges. His floor is prototypical “3-and-D” guy. But he has the potential to most past that role. He shot 43% from 3 on 239 attempts at Villanova last season, and has the ability to, at the very least, guard both wing positions.

He’s a great fit in Chicago as a defensive compliment to Lauri Markkanen and Zach Lavine. And he can also space the floor, which would allow more room for Kris Dunn to operate.

#8 Cleveland Cavaliers: PG, Trae Young

The beauty of this pick is that I think this would be the pick no matter what LeBron decides to do. The draft is before the start of free agency, and if they decided to keep the pick, Young is the best player available left on this board at this point.

The Cavs desperately need another player who can create their own shot. Creating shots is Young’s specialty. He can shoot the hell out of the ball. But he might be a turnstile on defense against the NBA’s top-tier point guards. And also against the mid-tier point guards. I would say against the lower-tier as well, but there are none that play in the NBA. Point guard is the hardest position to make a roster in the league right now.

Trae Young’s potential could be anywhere from Steph Curry as best case scenario, or Jimmer Fredette as the worst case. Or maybe Marshall Henderson as an even worse case.

#9 New York Knicks: C/F, Wendell Carter Jr.

Carter is a great value pick here, and a good fit. He isn’t as tall, but has a much bigger frame than Kristaps Porzingis, so he can play the 5 and let Porzingis play his more natural position at the 4.

Carter isn’t the most athletic, but he can score. And he has a jumper that will translate to the NBA. He would be a nice addition to the assets that the Knicks have started to acquire.

#10 Philadelphia 76ers: F, Miles Bridges

Bridges is a great fit for Philly at #10. He can start at the small forward position, or come off the bench and have the second unit offense run through him. He has shown a good, but not great shooting touch, and would have to make sure he could knock down open threes to improve the spacing in the Sixers offense.

Adding Bridges here would be adding another big playmaker to a roster already equipped with many: Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, and Markelle Fultz.

#11 Charlotte Hornets: F, Michael Porter Jr.

Porter is the biggest question mark of the entire draft. Because if his back is healthy, and he begins to look like the player we saw in high school, he should be a top-3 pick.

He’s a dynamic scorer. At 6’10”, he can score from anywhere on the court, and can handle the ball pretty well too. When it comes to rebounding and defense though, he doesn’t play to his size. Small forward is his true position but if he could ever figure out how to use his height and athleticism on defense, he could be the steal of this draft.

#12 LA Clippers: G, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

This pick for the Clippers is about Gilgeous-Alexander’s potential on the defensive end. He’s a tall point guard that can’t shoot, which will draw comparisons to Michael Carter-Williams, but Carter-Williams did win rookie of the year before he fell off a cliff basketball wise.

#13 LA Clippers: F/C, Robert Williams

Back-to-back lottery picks can help accelerate the Clippers’ rebuild process, and Robert Williams can help replace what will likely be DeAndre Jordan-sized hole at center after free agency.

Williams is only 6’9″, but his wingspan is 7’5″ and he can jump out of the gym. He can’t shoot at all, and he is a little undisciplined as a defender, but he has length and athletic ability that cannot be taught.

#14 Denver Nuggets: F, Kevin Knox

Knox is a question mark in all aspects of his game. it is unsure whether he can become a reliable scorer or defender at the next level. But the potential is definitely there for both. He has length and wingspan to be a very good perimeter defender, and the offensive ability to put the ball in the hoop.

The Nuggets start Wilson Chandler at the 3, and Knox’s potential is a better version of Chandler.