Brandon Jackson

The most wonderful time of the year is here! NBA playoff time. The first round isn’t always the best in terms of matchups, but the sheer number of playoff basketball games we get every night for the next two weeks makes up for it.

Here my picks for the first round:

Raptors vs. Wizards

Wizards in 7. My big upset of the first round. I just do not believe in Raptors one bit. On paper, the Raptors have the better team and have been a more cohesive unit all season, but I’ve seen the Raptors fold to much in the playoffs to let it go.

They know a matchup with the Cavaliers is looming and the ghost of LeBron may show up in their heads early.

Also, The Wizards have John Wall and Bradley Beal. I was at the Cavs game where the Wizards lost a 17-point lead. They were up those 17 points because of John Wall mostly. I realize that the Raptors have Kyle Lowry to guard Wall, but Wall looked to be in great condition. A healthy Wall, athletically, is a problem for most defenders.

Bucks vs. Celtics

Celtics in 6. The Celtics play defense better than most teams in the NBA. And with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup, their starting 5 has 4 plus defenders, with Tatum being more than passable on that end of the court.

The Bucks by far have the best player in the series, but it won’t matter. They cannot score enough points. No one can be quite sure why their lineup doesn’t work, but it just hasn’t. They have the pieces with Jabari Parker coming back into form, Khris Middleton and Tony Snell on the wing, Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon in the backcourt. There is enough here to make a serious conference finals run, but the best version of this team just has not materialized.

Sixers vs. Heat

Sixers in 5. Philadelphia is the more talented team, and that matters in the playoffs. Erik Spoelstra is a fantastic coach, and the Heat have fine young talent, but the Sixers’ young talent are current/future All-Stars and future All-NBA team members.

We’re going to find out very early how much it matters that Ben Simmons refuses to take a shot from further than 10 feet away from the hoop. Spoelstra will come up with a gameplan for Simmons, but it will not matter. Embiid will come back during this series to give Isaiah Whiteside nightmares, and whatever Markelle Fultz gives the Sixers will be extra.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers.

Cavs in 4.

Warriors vs. Spurs

Warriors in 5. Even without Stephen Curry for the first round, the rest of the Warriors squad can handle the Kawhi-less Spurs. I’m giving the Spurs one game just out of respect for Gregg Popovich and the Spurs organization. The fact that they are even in the playoffs is an accomplishment.

The Spurs do have talent, just not enough to contend in the stacked Western Conference this year. Dejounte Murray is a fine young point guard, and Danny Green doesn’t seem to age. With (maybe) Kawhi Leonard back in the fold next season, they will be right back in the post-season in 2019.

Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans

Blazers in 6. I almost picked the Pelicans because no one in Portland can contain Anthony Davis. But Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum will be too much to handle. The Pelicans have done an amazing job getting this far with Davis having an unbelievable second half of the season.

Davis is the best player in this series, but Lillard and McCollum can both score 50 on any given night, and possibly both on the same night. That explosiveness will prove to be too much for New Orleans.

If the Pelicans bring back DeMarcus Cousins next year, Davis’ proclamation that the Pelicans can make the Finals if both of the two All-NBA big men are healthy.

Thunder vs. Jazz

Thunder in 6. It’s time for the Thunder to put up or shut up. The playoffs are the reason why Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are there. Losing Andre Roberson was a big blow, but the Thunder have been able to weather that storm somehwhat.

The Jazz are a fun young team, with great defensive talent and probably the coach of the year in Quin Snyder. Donavan Mitchell is the runner-up rookie of the year and can go on a scoring run by himself at any moment.

But Russell Westbrook and Paul George are too talented to lose in this first-round matchup. The Jazz will absolutely make it tough on Westbrook and company, but not tough enough.

Rockets vs. Timberwolves

Rockets in 4. Too much firepower from the Rockets for the Wolves to handle. Jimmy Butler is great, Karl-Anthony Towns is great, Taj Gibson is still good, and Andrew Wiggins may give you something. The Rockets will give you at least 25 points from James Harden, guaranteed production from Chris Paul and Eric Gordon, and a myriad of role players: Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, Gerald Green, and Nene.

I don’t believe the Rockets will truly be tested until they have a series against Golden State.